Category Archives: reading proficiency

What’s Missing in the “Science of” Education Reform Movements? Often, the Science

[Header Photo by Andrew George on Unsplash]

In an analysis of how media represents teachers and education, Silvia Edling argues, “Newspapers do not just write about education, they also represent to their readers what education is ‘about.’”

Edling notes that teachers and education are often characterized by stereotypes, focusing on “four inter-related propensities”:

  • Viewing education as being in more or less permanent crisis
  • Taking the role as a spokesperson for teachers and on behalf of the field of education
  • Excluding the knowledge and experiences of teacher(s), educators and/or educational researchers in the public press
  • Simplifying the notion of being a good teacher through stereotypes and dualistic frameworks that overlook task and relational complexity.

At the core of effective journalism is the importance of compelling stories. However, one truism offers a problem with relying on narratives without ensuring that the broader evidence supports the anecdote: “a lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is still putting on its shoes.”

For media coverage of education, the softer version may be that an exciting story can attain a status of fact before educational research can confirm or refute the narrative as an outlier or misinformation.

One challenge is, of course, that journalism works much more quickly than scientific research, and this is compounded by the inherent complexity of conducting education research and then applying that evidence to the real world.

For about a decade now, education reform has mostly invested in an expanding “science of” movement that began with the “science of reading” and now includes an international focus on the “science of learning” as well as a parallel “science of math” movement.

The origin stories of the “science of reading” movement is grounded, in fact, in the journalism of Emily Hanford, notably Hard Words, the ironically named Sold a Story podcast, and There Is a Right Way to Teach Reading, and Mississippi Knows It.

As I have detailed, the Mississippi “miracle” and reading crisis narratives generated and perpetuated by the media are missing one key ingredient—scientific evidence for the hyperbolic claims and narratives.

In fact, the current “science of” movements fail all four of Edling’s concerns by presenting a crisis absent research to support the claims; creating non-education reading “experts” among journalists and advocates for commercial programs; cherry-picking teacher voices while also misrepresenting teacher expertise through stereotypes and caricatures; and framing both the crisis and solutions in simplistic either/or rhetoric along ideological lines (progressive v. traditional framed as vibe-based v. scientific).

While the most recent wave, for example, of reading reform reaches back to 2012, the tipping point was Mississippi’s 2019 grade 4 reading scores. Since Mississippi has a long history of unfairly being cast as “last in the nation in education,” that these grade 4 scores suddenly rocketed into the top 25% of state scores certainly qualifies as a compelling story.

It also doesn’t hurt that the appearance that Mississippi had proven that “poverty is an excuse” adds fuel to the hyperbole fire.

Quickly, a “science of” narrative erupted, resulting in copy-cat legislation and the same unverified story about a reading crisis and the Mississippi miracle across local, regional, and national media.

The “science of” story has, in fact, traveled around the world several times at this point, but the key element remains missing—the science.

For example, The Reading League and the 95 Percent Group have become powerful advocacy organizations that make narrow and absolute claims about the need for science-only reading instruction linked to the promise that 95% of student will become proficient readers.

Again, ironically, neither of these positions (or the advocacy of the organizations) is grounded in the science.

First, The Reading League simultaneously demands only scientific evidence (first image) while advocating for practices and programs (for example, decodable texts and O-G phonics) that literature reviews on the current state of reading science refute (second image):

And, even more problematic, the 95% claim is not a scientific fact, but a very weakly supported and likely aspirational argument with only a few research studies behind the over-sized claim. As I have noted, the only evidence I have found is a a blog post cited by NCTQ, who twisted the stat to 90% and issued a report on teacher education that failed to match claims with the science.

Recently, the science is now catching up with the Mississippi story—although education journalism has remained silent on the current body of research that contradicts the story.

First, if we stick to the science and not the story, poverty is not an excuse when considering reading proficiency; in fact, over 60% of measurable student achievement is causally linked to “social capital family income variables that influence the development of background knowledge. Background knowledge is a known predictor of standardized test results. Family income variables are immutable by schools. Only public policies, outside the control of school personnel, can influence family income.”

In fact, these researchers reject continuing to base education reform on testing data such as NAEP:

Policy makers and education leaders should rethink the current reliance on standardized test results as the deciding factor to make decisions about student achievement, teacher quality, school effectiveness, and school leader quality. In effect, policies that use standardized test results to evaluate, reward, and sanction students and school personnel are doing nothing more than rewarding schools that serve advantaged students and punishing schools that serve disadvantaged students.

Next, two analyses of reading reform—one targeting the larger early reading reform movement and another specifically addressing Mississippi reading reform—find that the early grade reading score increases are not linked to changes in teacher training, reading instruction, and reading programs, but are grounded in grade retention policies.

In the broader study, Westall and Cummings found that only states with grade retention in their reading reform achieved increased reading proficiency scores, and those increases faded from elementary to middle school (paralleling the drop from top 25% to bottom 25% of states in NAEP from grade 4 to grade 8 by Mississippi and Florida).

They, however, drew no conclusions about why retention appears to result in higher scores.

Now, however, Howard Wainer, Irina Grabovsky and Daniel H. Robinson offer a conclusive connection between retention and reading scores:

But it was the second component of the Mississippi Miracle, a new retention policy, perhaps inspired by New Orleans’ Katrina disaster a decade earlier, that is likely to be the key to their success….

Prior to 2013, a higher percentage of third-graders moved on to the fourth grade and took the NAEP fourth-grade reading test. After 2013, only those students who did well enough in reading moved on to the fourth grade and took the test.

It is a fact of arithmetic that the mean score of any data set always increases if you delete some of the lowest scores (what is technically called “left truncation of the score distribution”)….

It is disappointing, but not surprising, that the lion’s share of the effects of the “Mississippi miracle” are yet another case of gaming the system. There is no miracle to behold. There is nothing special in Mississippi’s literacy reform model that should be replicated globally. It just emphasises the obvious advice that, if you want your students to get high scores, don’t allow those students who are likely to get low scores to take the test. This message is not a secret….

The science now suggests that reading proficiency score gains do not equate with improved reading proficiency due to classroom teaching learning reform. Mississippi reform is a statistical veneer for a harmful policy.

Notably, the current science on grade retention also confirms a body of evidence that retention does more harm than any possible good:

[T]hird-grade retention significantly reduces annual earnings at age 26 by $3,477 (19%). While temporarily improving test scores, retention increases absenteeism, violent behavior, and juvenile crime, and reduces the likelihood of high school graduation. Moreover, retained students exhibit higher community college enrollment but lower public university attendance, though neither estimate is statistically significant.

We are left with a significant problem and a question that must be answered: Since, as Edling shows, media controls what most people know and believe about education, teachers, and students, why are journalists committed to a story not grounded in evidence while also ignoring the science that seems essential for creating an authentic “science of” education reform movement?


Recommended

Research Highlights “Science of Reading” Fails Equity, Teacher Autonomy, and Social Media Discourse

Washington Post: There is no literacy crisis in the U.S. Here’s what’s really happening

[Header Photo by Iana Dmytrenko on Unsplash]

Thomas, P.L. (2025, July 28). There is no literacy crisis in the U.S. Here’s what’s really happening. The Washington Post. https://wapo.st/474j758

The evidence/links in the articles:


Recommended

English Journal Series: We Teach English in Times of Perpetual Crisis

Big Lies of Education: Reading Proficiency and NAEP

Three Questions about the Mississippi Reading “Miracle”

Three Questions about the Mississippi Reading “Miracle” [Updated December 2025]

[Header Photo by USGS on Unsplash]

Update [December 2025]

Here I want to note that Q1 and Q3 have been answered, and the answer is exactly what I have been suggesting.

First, let me recommend How much of “Mississippi’s education miracle” is an artifact of selection bias?, which examines the analysis answering two of the questions below: On education miracles in general (and those in Mississippi in particular), Howard Wainer, Irina Grabovsky and Daniel H. Robinson.

Here are the highlights, although I recommend reading the entire piece:

In 1748, famed Scot David Hume defined nature. He elaborated such a law as “a regularity of past experience projected by the mind to future cases”. He argued that the evidence for a miracle is rarely sufficient to suspend rational belief because a closer look has always revealed that what was reported as a miracle was more likely false, resulting from misperception, mistransmission, or deception….

A careful examination confirms that enthusiasm to emulate Mississippi should be tempered with scepticism….

This provides a boost of about $111.63 of extra funding annually for each pupil. Comparing this amount to what are annual contemporary per pupil expenditures nationally, we have to agree that if such small expenditures can make a visible difference in student performance it truly is a miracle – a Mississippi version of St. John’s loaves and fishes.

But it was the second component of the Mississippi Miracle, a new retention policy, perhaps inspired by New Orleans’ Katrina disaster a decade earlier, that is likely to be the key to their success….

Prior to 2013, a higher percentage of third-graders moved on to the fourth grade and took the NAEP fourth-grade reading test. After 2013, only those students who did well enough in reading moved on to the fourth grade and took the test.

It is a fact of arithmetic that the mean score of any data set always increases if you delete some of the lowest scores (what is technically called “left truncation of the score distribution”)….

Strangely though, for the eighth-grade literacy test, the state’s rank dropped to a tie for 42nd place!…

(Note that this works especially well for student height, for after retaining the shortest third-graders for an extra year they will likely be taller when they are measured again a year later. It would be nice if the same were true for students struggling in academic subjects.)…

Were we to do this we would find that most of Mississippi’s gains are due to the retention rate.

It is disappointing, but not surprising, that the lion’s share of the effects of the “Mississippi miracle” are yet another case of gaming the system. There is no miracle to behold. There is nothing special in Mississippi’s literacy reform model that should be replicated globally. It just emphasises the obvious advice that, if you want your students to get high scores, don’t allow those students who are likely to get low scores to take the test. This message is not a secret….

 Find a way to prevent the lowest test scorers from taking the exam and the average score will increase….

Second, besides weak empirical data, educational reformers like Patrinos should have given greater weight to the extant literature on the Mississippi Miracle. The miracle had already been convincingly debunked.10 Fourth-grade gains had vanished by the time the students reached eighth grade.


Question 1: Why is Mississippi retaining about 9000-12,000 K-3 students annually since 2014?

One of the key assertions of the “science of reading” (SOR) movement is that students across the US are mostly not proficient readers because teachers rely on balanced literacy to teach reading.

And then, SOR advocates argue that 95% of students can be proficient readers, and the key to that success is SOR.

That raises an important question about Mississippi, which has implemented both SOR reading policy and grade retention for over a decade.

SOR advocates have called MS’s jump in grade 4 NAEP scores a “miracle”; however, MS has continued to retain about 9000-12,000 students annually in K-3.

Certainly, a decade is enough time to reach the 95% rate of proficiency, and thus, retention numbers should have dropped dramatically or be near 0.

Question 2: How is Mississippi a “miracle” if the achievement gap for race and socioeconomic status is the same as 1998?

As shown in MS’s 2024 NAEP reading scores for grade 4:

Question 3: Why has Mississippi’s grade 8 NAEP scores remained in the bottom 25% of states despite the grade 4 NAEP scores jumping into the top 25%?

For 2024, MS NAEP grade 8 reading scores drop to eleventh from the bottom of state scores:


An analysis of reading reform found that states with comprehensive reform that includes grade retention have experienced short-term increases in test scores.

However, the analysis does not identify why these comprehensive reforms (including grade retention) are correlated with those short-term scores increases.

Research on education “miracles” have found that virtually none exist, and even when a school or program appears to be “high flying” there is little evidence those can be scaled up meaningfully.

Mississippi’s grade 4 NAEP scores in reading, then, raise questions that must be answered; instead, it is now politically cool to adopt copy-cat legislation from the state without proper evidence that there is valid success or a solid understanding of what is happening and why.


Recommended

Big Lies of Education: Grade Retention

Kids Count, Deficit Ideology, and NAEP Misinformation: 2024 Edition

The 2024 Kids Count Data Book is out and adorned with the lovely smiling faces of children.

Regretfully, Kids Count shows more about how good intentions are not enough and that our public and political focus on education remains grounded in deficit ideology and misinformation linked to NAEP testing.

First, note the focus on education once again using NAEP “proficiency”:

And then, note the deficit perspective for ranking states based on NAEP proficiency:

Imagine if this report focused first on NAEP “basic” and above? And then identified students at or above basic?

Kids Count is yet another part of the manufactured crisis in education that serves negative portrayals of students, teachers, and public schools—and ultimately the education reform industry.

Yet, this report and its negative as well as misleading use of data must make us ask: If kids count, why do we persist in ranking and vilifying those children and the people spending their lives serving them in our schools?

Responses Needed to Senator Cassidy’s Report on Literacy

U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy, M.D. (R-LA) has released a report on literacy that opens with yet another example of misrepresenting NAEP reading scores to manufacture a reading crisis for political gain: “Two-thirds of America’s fourth and eighth graders are not proficient in reading.”

The report is an embarrassing recycling of the media misinformation campaign about reading in the US.

In fact, most of the footnotes cite news articles (including the Washington Times, a conservative outlet that lacks credibility) and conservative think tanks (ExcelinEd, Fordham). [1]

Notably missing are citations to scientific research on reading or credible analyses of NAEP data.

Responses are needed and can be sent to Literacy@help.senate.gov by April 5, 2024.

Here is my response:

I am very disappointed in this report, notably since it starts with misinformation about NAEP: https://www.help.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/literacy_report.pdf

The report is deeply flawed and relies on misleading and false journalism (footnotes) to support misleading and inaccurate claims:

How Media Misinformation Became “Holy Text”: The Anatomy of the SOR Movement

ILEC Response: Mainstream media coverage of reading proficiency, teachers of reading, NAEP scores, and teacher preparation

Good intentions are not enough and government policy on education has done more harm than good since A Nation at Risk. We can do better, and we should. But we must start with accurate claims and credible solutions.

Big Lies of Education: Reading Proficiency and NAEP

Big Lies of Education: A Nation at Risk and Education “Crisis” 

Stop using misinformation and crisis rhetoric for political gain [2] and genuinely address what students and teachers need to be successful.


US Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions


[1] Analysis of 33 footnotes for the report:

Preventing a Lost Generation: Facing a Critical Moment for Students’ Literacy

Senator Bill Cassady, MD, Ranking Member

US Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions

NAEP/PISA Data/ Government Reports

National Achievement-Level Results, National Assessment of Educational Progress (Oct. 24, 2022), https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/reading/nation/achievement/.

National Achievement-Level Results, The National Assessment of Educational Progress (Oct. 24, 2022), https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/reading/nation/achievement/.

Trends in High School Dropout and Completion Rates in the United States, National Center for Education Statistics (Jan. 2020), https://nces.ed.gov/programs/dropout/index.asp.

Thomas G. Sticht, Vice President, Basic Skills in Defense, Human Resources Research Organization (June 1982), https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED237776.pdf.

Scores Decline in NAEP Reading at Grades 4 and 8 Compared to 2019, National Assessment of Educational Progress (Oct. 24, 2022), https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/highlights/reading/2022/

NAEP Report Card: 2019 NAEP Reading Assessment, National Assessment of Educational Progress (2019), https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/highlights/reading/2019/g12/.

NAEP Long-Term Trend Assessment Results: Reading and Mathematics, National Assessment of Educational Progress (Sept. 1, 2022), https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/highlights/ltt/2022/.

Program for International Student Assessment 2022 Results, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Dec. 5, 2023), https://www.oecd.org/publication/pisa-2022-results/.

AEP Report Card: Reading State Achievement-Level Results, National Assessment of Educational Progress (Oct. 24, 2022), https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/reading/states/achievement/.

Teaching Children to Read: An Evidence-Based Assessment of the Scientific Research Literature on Reading and Its Implications for Reading Instruction, National Reading Panel (Apr. 2000), https://www.nichd.nih.gov/sites/default/files/publications/pubs/nrp/Documents/report.pdf.

National Achievement-Level Results, National Assessment of Educational Progress (Oct. 24, 2022), https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/reading/nation/achievement/.

NAEP Long-Term Trend Assessment Results: Reading and Mathematics, National Assessment of Educational Progress (Sept. 1, 2022), https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/highlights/ltt/2022/.

Joint Dear Colleague Letter, U.S. Department of Education Office for Civil Rights (Jan. 8, 2014), [LINK OMITTED, apparent error]

Resource on Confronting Racial Discrimination in Student Discipline, U.S. Department of Education Office for Civil Rights (May 2023), https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/1585291/dl?inline.

Think Tank/Advocacy Reports

Donald J. Hernandez, Professor, Double Jeopardy: How Third-Grade Reading Skills and Poverty Influence High School Graduation, The Annie E. Casey Foundation (2012), https://assets.aecf.org/m/resourcedoc/AECF-DoubleJeopardy-2012-Full.pdf.

Anthony P. Carnevale et al., Director and Research Professor, Recovery: Job Growth and Education Requirements Through 2020, Georgetown Public Policy Institute – Center on Education and the Workforce (June 2013), https://cewgeorgetown.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Recovery2020.FR_.Web_.pdf

Economic Impacts of Dropouts. National Dropout Prevention Center (n.d.), https://dropoutprevention.org/resources/statistics/quick-facts/economic-impacts-of-dropouts/.

Erin Fahle et. al, Research Scientist, The First Year of Pandemic Recovery: A District-Level Analysis, The Harvard University Center for Education Policy and Research & The Educational Opportunity Project at Stanford University (Jan. 2024), https://educationrecoveryscorecard.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ERS-Report-Final-1.31.pdf.

Why The Three-Cueing Systems Model Doesn’t Teach Children to Read, Excel in Ed (2022), https://excelined.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/ExcelinEd_FactSheet_ThreeCueingDoesNotTeachChildrenToRead.pdf.

2023 Voice of the Superintendent Survey Executive Brief, EAB (Feb. 16, 2023), https://pages.eab.com/2023SuperintendentSurveyExecutiveBrief.html.

Daniel Buck, Soft-on-Consequences Discipline Is Terrible For Teachers, Thomas B. Fordham Institute (Feb. 9, 2023), https://fordhaminstitute.org/national/commentary/soft-consequences-discipline-terrible-teachers.

Max Eden, The Trouble with Social Emotional Learning, House Committee on Appropriations – Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies (Apr. 6, 2022) AEI, https://www.aei.org/research-products/testimony/the-trouble-with-social-emotional-learning/.

Chronic Absenteeism: 2017-2023, Return2Learn Tracker (Oct. 23, 2023), https://www.returntolearntracker.net/.

Media

Micaela Burrow, Army Qualification Test Scores Plummeted Further In 2022, Daily Caller. (Sept. 16, 2022). https://dailycaller.com/2022/09/16/army-qualification-scores-plummeted-2022/.

April Rubin, ACT Test Scores Fall to Lowest Levels in 32 Years, Axios (Oct. 11, 2023), https://www.axios.com/2023/10/11/act-test-scores-lowest-2023.

Matt Barnum & Kalyn Belsha, Blizzard of State Test Scores Shows Some Progress in Math, Divergence in Reading, Chalkbeat (Oct. 2, 2023), https://www.chalkbeat.org/2023/10/2/23896045/state-test-scores-data-math-reading-pandemic-era-learning-loss.

Linda Jacobson, Science of Reading Push Helped Some States Exceed Pre-Pandemic Performance, The 74 Million (Oct. 17, 2023), https://www.the74million.org/article/science-of-reading-push-helped-some-states-exceed-pre-pandemic-performance/.

Liana Loewus, Data: How Reading Is Really Being Taught, Education Week (Dec. 3, 2019), https://www.edweek.org/teaching-learning/data-how-reading-is-reallybeing-taught/2019/12.

Sarah Schwartz, Teachers College to ‘Dissolve’ Lucy Calkins’ Reading and Writing Project, Education Week (Sept. 5, 2023), https://www.edweek.org/teaching-learning/teachers-college-to-dissolve-lucy-calkins-reading-and-writing-project/2023/09.

Sarah Schwartz, Reading Recovery Sues Ohio Over Ban on ‘Cueing’ in Literacy Instruction, Education Week (Oct. 18, 2023), https://www.edweek.org/teaching-learning/reading-recovery-sues-ohio-over-ban-on-cueing-in-literacy-instruction/2023/10.

Susan Ferrechio, Teachers Unions Worked with CDC to Keep Schools Closed for COVID, GOP Report Says, The Washington Times (Mar. 30, 2022), https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/mar/30/republican-report-shows-teachers-unions-helped-cdc/.

Sarah D. Sparks, Two Decades of Progress, Nearly Gone: National Math, Reading Scores Hit Historic Lows, Education Week (Oct. 24, 2022), https://www.edweek.org/leadership/two-decades-of-progress-nearly-gone-national-math-reading-scores-hit-historic-lows/2022/10.

Arianna Prothero, Student Behavior Isn’t Getting Any Better, Survey Shows, Education Week (Apr. 20, 2023), https://www.edweek.org/leadership/student-behaviorisnt-getting-any-better-survey-shows/2023/04.

Sarah Mervosh, Who Runs the Best U.S. Schools? It May Be the Defense Department., The New York Times (Oct. 10, 2023), https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/10/us/schools-pandemic-defense-department.html.

Commercial Blogs

TPT Survey Report: What 2,000+ Teachers Think About SEL, Teachers Pay Teachers (May 2022), https://blog.teacherspayteachers.com/tpt-survey-report-what-2000-teachers-think-about-social-emotional-learning/.

[2] See:

A school for students with dyslexia continues to stay open despite two F grades from the BESE, Louisiana’s Board of Elementary and Secondary Education. The Louisiana Key Academy is run by Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and his wife, Laura. Both are physicians. Neither are specialists in reading disorders, although they have a child with dyslexia.

Big Lies of Education: Reading Proficiency and NAEP

Some Big Lies of Education start with journalists (even at the biggest of media outlets).

“One of the most bearish statistics for the future of the United States is this: Two-thirds of fourth graders in the United States are not proficient in reading,” wrote Nicholas Kristof in The New York Times.

Kristof’s piece in 2023 can be traced back to a similar claim by Emily Hanford in 2018: “More than 60 percent of American fourth-graders are not proficient readers, according to the National Assessment of Educational Progress, and it’s been that way since testing began in the 1990s,” including a surprisingly ineffective graphic:

The student reading proficiency Big Lie grounded in misrepresenting or misunderstanding NAEP is likely one of the most complicated Big Lies of Education.

In media and political rhetoric, first, the terms “reading proficiency” and “grade level reading” are commonly jumbled and used inappropriately as synonyms.

Achievement levels such as “basic” and “proficient,” used in NAEP for reading, are misleading and complicated for most people not familiar with technical terminology.

NAEP “basic” is approximately grade level (although even that claim is problematic since no standard exists in the US for “proficient” or “grade level”), and “proficient” on NAEP is high:

Rosenberg, B. (2004, May). What’s proficient? The No Child Left Behind Act and the many meanings of proficiency. Washington, DC: American Federation of Teachers. https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED497886.pdf

NAEP testing and data are normative, measuring what a general population is achieving (not individual students), and as noted above, NAEP “proficient” is aspirational.

State accountability testing is measuring individual achievement, and states tend to use “proficient” as a measure that falls in the “basic” range of NAEP, suggesting that state-level proficient is “grade level” approximate or at least what most student should be able to achieve at that grade [1]:


Hanford’s and Kristof’s Big Lie, then, is a combination of blurring NAEP achievement levels with grade level reading achievement and manufacturing a reading crisis with that misinformation.

Ironically, NAEP grade 4 reading scores for a decade show that 2/3 of students are reading at or above grade level, the inverse of the false crisis claims of the media:


The Big Lie about reading proficiency and NAEP help perpetuate the Big Lie about educational crisis, but it also masks the more complicated truths: the US has no standard metric for assessing the national reading achievement of students, and focusing on manufactured reading crises distracts reformers from addressing what we can identify—inequitable access to reading proficiency among minoritized and marginalized populations of students.

I recommend the following to understand the essential failure, the Big Lie, of using NAEP to manufacture a crisis around reading proficiency in the US:

Media Misrepresentations of NAEP

Understanding NAEP


[1] State achievement level descriptors (ALD) vary greatly: